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Keep in mind that when point spreads are involved, picking the winning team may not result in a correct selection. If the team you select is favored by 10 points, they have to win by at least 11 points for your pick to be accurate.
If you believe a 10-point favorite will win by fewer than 10 points (or lose outright), you should select the underdog to win the game if your group uses point spreads.